The UNFCCC Secretariat has released a report assessing the aggregate impact of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted so far before Paris.

The final full document “Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions” covers over 140 INDCs and over 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The full document can be accessed here.

The report indicates that the current INDCs will lead to global warming of 2.7 degrees C. This generally aligns with recent independent reports from groups such Climate Action Tracker and Climate Interactive, whose calculations range from 2.7 and 3.5 degrees (depending on methodology). Will this overshoots the UNFCCC’s adopted 2 (or 1.5) degree target, (and thus still ‘dangerous‘) it is lower than previous estimates of 4-6 degrees. In this regard, the INDC system is could be an effective first step, if it is both implemented effectively, and followed by an effective ‘ratcheting‘ mechanism.

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